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Wednesday 13 August 2014

Chelsea for the title - Mourinho has bought goals unless Man U do an Atletico Madrid

When Chelsea last won the league they scored 103 goals. This was when Carlos Ancelotti was manager. Mourinho's first spell's last season in charge 2007/8 and they only had 63 goals scored finishing third. Last season they had 71 goals and also finished third. With the 3 new signings Costa, Fabregas and the resigning of the legendary Drogba they have potentially 48 extra goals
Since Mourinho's time in Spain hes learned to build a free scoring team. Real scoring 102 goals in his first season then 122 and then 103. Premiership Football and the Wortld Cup has recently favoured the more open scoring games. Last seasons EPL with 100+ goals scored and 35+ against to win titles. See Man City. Though Atletico Madrid wining La Liga may be replicated by defensive Man U !? GF 77 GA26

So unless there is a defensive paradigm switch Chelsea's chances look good if the new signings make the impact expected. Lets hope the surprising symmetry of Costa and Tores La Liga goal ratio doesn't replicate their Chelsea experiences.


Saturday 9 August 2014

Post Suarez - same as post Rush or post Fowler or post Keegan or post Owen ?

After Rush went to Juventus Liverpool won the league by 9 points

After Keegan they won the European Cup for the second time

After Fowler 2001/2002 they finished second in the league- their highest position for 11 years

After Owen they won the European Cup for the 5th time

Goals=Victory=Success=Less flyover plane rentals

Man United need goals

Paul Scholes is right why have Man Utd bought a 35 million no goals in 60 games full back. scholes

Last season 2013/14 their top league scorers were

Rooney 17
Van Persie 12
Wellbeck 9
Hernandez

Previous season 2012/13 when they won the league

Rooney 12
Van Persie 26
Hernandez 10
Wellbeck 1

Last season Goals for 64 Goals against 43

Previous season Goals for 86 Goals against 43

If RVP gets injured again Man U are finishing seventh

Friday 20 June 2014

England Expects (Too much)

Engerlaaand are out of the world cup. Their worst performance ever. We have run out of excuses and the media seem neither shocked nor vitriolic. No turnip head brolley wally abuse for Roy. But will we ever learn to succeed in these tournaments ? The success of the premiership gives us false hope we have a squad used to playing against the best in the world but those players never seem to gel well enough to properly compete.

England play perhaps due to fear and anxiety with a combination of sterility, hestitancy and exhaustion. The mental stress due to the expected success must be enormous. They would never have the mental freedom to play the way Costa Rica have.
The burden of 40 million people and blanket media attention makes the stress debilitating. Also they over reach. Perhaps a greater respect for opposing teams and play with a spoiler game plan like Costa Rica and Chelsea do. England are full of good individuals but maybe this knowledge raises the ambition. Instead focus more on not losing and temper the ambition. Nil nil or 1-1 are good results in world cup group stages and later stages if you are good at penalties The hyper sterility of Capellos team has been replaced with a better attacking verve and England were only two missed chances away from qualifying. Suggesting England should play like Liverpool might not be the best advice. A leaky defence and midfield lost Liverpool the premiership. Without a Uruguayan's goals and a Brazilian's creativity they would have been mid table.

Had England man marked Suarez and Pirlo and played 4-5-1 with 5 defensive midfielders and no attacking full backs they could at least  unleash the flair team in the last must win game. This meant England fans might have lived the world cup win delusion for at least 4 more days. Even Allys army in 1978 had a chance to go through in the last game.

England failed through tactical naivety and this is the managers fault and he should resign. Managers should be judged on the what would Mourinho have done, its far easier to copy a managers thought process than a players skill and he would have worked out a way to win this group.

Sunday 15 June 2014

World Cup Top Five Best and Top Five Worst Moments

Best moment so far - Pirlo's free kick which hit the bar

Second best moment - Pirlo's dummy which created a goal unlike Pele's

Third best moment - Pirlo's beard - looks like Socrates - the Brazil player and the Greek philosopher.  Buy Autobiography on Amazon I think therefore I play

Fourth best moment - Sturridge's goal

Fifth best moment - Coast Rica winning 3-1

Worst moment so far - Dutch winning 5-1, Robben, RVP, LVG are just not like able
Second worst - referee bias to Brazil

Third worst - Rooney played out of position again

Fourth worst - Balotelli

Fifth worst - Balotelli






Saturday 31 May 2014

Who will win the world cup

The titans of finance Goldman Sachs and Bloomberg both say Brazil.
Using a clever monte carlo statistical analysis. The same one which has created 5+ years of global recession probably.

Eminent scientist Stephen Hawkins says not England. ( You don't become a Professor for being stupid) . He also mentions hosts often win 30%. See 1966, 1998 etc

Brazil are the 3/1 favourite at the bookies but bookies are pandering to the masses.

Looking at Brazil's team on paper though they don't look the best. Argentina's do. Neymar, Oscar, Hulk vs Di Maria, Messi, Aguero.

But if World cups get won by the team with the best individual players then Wales might have a chance and we cant see Portugal doing well either.

Brazil are ranked 9th below Argentina, Columbia and Uruguay.


Will the expectation and internal protests undermine their confidence.

They no longer have the same plethora of star players. Neymar is the new star but he has been injured and his form for Barcelona with only 17 goals compared to Messi's 41 hasn't been that amazing. Rooney's scored the same number of goals in 15 less games for a struggling team.

Scolari has got them playing in a more pressing style. Borrowing from Borussia Dortmund's gegenpressen

Brazil tactics 

We think based on the "expect the unexpected" technique and zero statistical analysis we predict

Semis

Brazil vs Germany - Germany could provide a shock as they can out gegenpressen the gegenpressen's as you say in Deutsch. They will also win on penalties as they always do.

Spain vs Argentina - Argentina to win

Final

Argentina vs Germany - Argentina win

Other possible suprises, dark horses England to win group beat Spain in quarter finals. Beat Argentina. Beat Germany in final

or Belgium beat everyone meet Brazil in final and win in biggest shock since Euro 2004

So final will be one of

1. Germany - Argentina
2. England - Germany
3. Belgium - Brazil



Tuesday 27 May 2014

Pirlo still a Pearl(o) of a player

0/10 for the pun for me but 10/10 for Pirlo who still has all the grace and command of a true legend at his disposal Any England fans hoping for a diminished version of the Pirly King of Juve will be surely disappointed. Juve have won 3 titles since he arrived on a free transfer and his 2012 master class against England is very likely to happen again. At least in the group stage he wont humiliate us with a Panenka penalty. Do we have a strategy to suppress his technique and playmaking ablities ? Man marked by Oxlade Chamberlain or harried and hustled by Jack Wilshire. I doubt it. To make matters worse his efficient style seems perfect for the Brazilian climate of Manaus. Maybe need to copy the Benefica tactics which knocked out Juve. Not sure they can easily summarised but foul alot and get lots of luck. Perhaps our youthful side may win out with a shocking,unexpectedly high tempo approach, "so wrong its right", typical English style in 100% humidity with good use of substitutes could tire the Italian team with an average age of 30. I dont think I have an answer I'll stick to making rubbish puns A draw is a likely result