Wednesday, 13 August 2014
Chelsea for the title - Mourinho has bought goals unless Man U do an Atletico Madrid
Since Mourinho's time in Spain hes learned to build a free scoring team. Real scoring 102 goals in his first season then 122 and then 103. Premiership Football and the Wortld Cup has recently favoured the more open scoring games. Last seasons EPL with 100+ goals scored and 35+ against to win titles. See Man City. Though Atletico Madrid wining La Liga may be replicated by defensive Man U !? GF 77 GA26
So unless there is a defensive paradigm switch Chelsea's chances look good if the new signings make the impact expected. Lets hope the surprising symmetry of Costa and Tores La Liga goal ratio doesn't replicate their Chelsea experiences.
Saturday, 9 August 2014
Post Suarez - same as post Rush or post Fowler or post Keegan or post Owen ?
After Keegan they won the European Cup for the second time
After Fowler 2001/2002 they finished second in the league- their highest position for 11 years
After Owen they won the European Cup for the 5th time
Goals=Victory=Success=Less flyover plane rentals
Paul Scholes is right why have Man Utd bought a 35 million no goals in 60 games full back. scholes
Last season 2013/14 their top league scorers were
Rooney 17
Van Persie 12
Wellbeck 9
Hernandez
Previous season 2012/13 when they won the league
Rooney 12
Van Persie 26
Hernandez 10
Wellbeck 1
Last season Goals for 64 Goals against 43
Previous season Goals for 86 Goals against 43
If RVP gets injured again Man U are finishing seventh
Friday, 20 June 2014
England Expects (Too much)
Engerlaaand are out of the world cup. Their worst performance ever. We have run out of excuses and the media seem neither shocked nor vitriolic. No turnip head brolley wally abuse for Roy. But will we ever learn to succeed in these tournaments ? The success of the premiership gives us false hope we have a squad used to playing against the best in the world but those players never seem to gel well enough to properly compete.
England play perhaps due to fear and anxiety with a combination of sterility, hestitancy and exhaustion. The mental stress due to the expected success must be enormous. They would never have the mental freedom to play the way Costa Rica have.
The burden of 40 million people and blanket media attention makes the stress debilitating. Also they over reach. Perhaps a greater respect for opposing teams and play with a spoiler game plan like Costa Rica and Chelsea do. England are full of good individuals but maybe this knowledge raises the ambition. Instead focus more on not losing and temper the ambition. Nil nil or 1-1 are good results in world cup group stages and later stages if you are good at penalties The hyper sterility of Capellos team has been replaced with a better attacking verve and England were only two missed chances away from qualifying. Suggesting England should play like Liverpool might not be the best advice. A leaky defence and midfield lost Liverpool the premiership. Without a Uruguayan's goals and a Brazilian's creativity they would have been mid table.
Had England man marked Suarez and Pirlo and played 4-5-1 with 5 defensive midfielders and no attacking full backs they could at least unleash the flair team in the last must win game. This meant England fans might have lived the world cup win delusion for at least 4 more days. Even Allys army in 1978 had a chance to go through in the last game.
England failed through tactical naivety and this is the managers fault and he should resign. Managers should be judged on the what would Mourinho have done, its far easier to copy a managers thought process than a players skill and he would have worked out a way to win this group.
Sunday, 15 June 2014
World Cup Top Five Best and Top Five Worst Moments
Second best moment - Pirlo's dummy which created a goal unlike Pele's
Third best moment - Pirlo's beard - looks like Socrates - the Brazil player and the Greek philosopher. Buy Autobiography on Amazon I think therefore I play
Fourth best moment - Sturridge's goal
Fifth best moment - Coast Rica winning 3-1
Worst moment so far - Dutch winning 5-1, Robben, RVP, LVG are just not like able
Second worst - referee bias to Brazil
Third worst - Rooney played out of position again
Fourth worst - Balotelli
Fifth worst - Balotelli
Saturday, 31 May 2014
Who will win the world cup
Using a clever monte carlo statistical analysis. The same one which has created 5+ years of global recession probably.
Eminent scientist Stephen Hawkins says not England. ( You don't become a Professor for being stupid) . He also mentions hosts often win 30%. See 1966, 1998 etc
Brazil are the 3/1 favourite at the bookies but bookies are pandering to the masses.
Looking at Brazil's team on paper though they don't look the best. Argentina's do. Neymar, Oscar, Hulk vs Di Maria, Messi, Aguero.
But if World cups get won by the team with the best individual players then Wales might have a chance and we cant see Portugal doing well either.
Brazil are ranked 9th below Argentina, Columbia and Uruguay.
Will the expectation and internal protests undermine their confidence.
They no longer have the same plethora of star players. Neymar is the new star but he has been injured and his form for Barcelona with only 17 goals compared to Messi's 41 hasn't been that amazing. Rooney's scored the same number of goals in 15 less games for a struggling team.
Scolari has got them playing in a more pressing style. Borrowing from Borussia Dortmund's gegenpressen
Brazil tactics
We think based on the "expect the unexpected" technique and zero statistical analysis we predict
Semis
Brazil vs Germany - Germany could provide a shock as they can out gegenpressen the gegenpressen's as you say in Deutsch. They will also win on penalties as they always do.
Spain vs Argentina - Argentina to win
Final
Argentina vs Germany - Argentina win
Other possible suprises, dark horses England to win group beat Spain in quarter finals. Beat Argentina. Beat Germany in final
or Belgium beat everyone meet Brazil in final and win in biggest shock since Euro 2004
So final will be one of
1. Germany - Argentina
2. England - Germany
3. Belgium - Brazil